It’s simple – the past 10 years have shown us that the NBA Champion finishes within the top 5 in Net Rating. There’s always conversation about teams with vets or a collection of talent that will put it all together at the right time and make a huge run for the championship, but history tells us that usually that doesn’t happen.

Below is a snapshot of the past 10 NBA Champs and what their final regular season ratings looked like:

So… This raises the obvious question of: Who is in the top 5 this year? Well check out the teams here:

First off, the most surprising team is the Cavaliers at the top of the list. They are a well-built, young team but I don’t fully buy the thought of them contending THIS YEAR. Now, I fully anticipate the Cavs to contend the next 5 years or so, but this being their first year back in the playoffs since the LeBron era should have everyone temper any expectations.

For me, the real contenders are the teams listed 2-5: the Celtics, Nuggets, 76ers, and Bucks seem to be hands down the top dogs of the league. That would rule out the sexy picks of the Suns and Warriors – which is quite interesting considering the firepower on both squads.

Now it will be fun to see if the Suns beat history with a championship, but my money is on the Bucks to win it all this year.